> Thinkings bring you something new TOP > 918. Please rethink reasons not going out from our home (New coronavirus)
918. Please rethink reasons
not going out from our home (New coronavirus)
original uploaded on 2020/04/08 14:14 (GMT)
I must say my status of this new coronavirus case.
I am not a medical doctor or nurse.
So, I must transmit any information in English carefully,
especially in case to the world.
I am living in Japan.
I cannot follow countries outside of Japan precisely enough.
So, I can only say something about Japanese status of New coronavirus
along with Japanese status of New coronavirus,
not for making any fake news.
I am sorry.
I want to say sorry to all unfortunate dead persons and patients.
(Too much number of dead persons have emerged.
Only one dead is big and heavy, I think.)
And I want to say ales
to now fighting all patients and their supporters
(for example, their families and friends, volunteers and governments.)
And I want to say big thank you
to now fighting all doctors, nurses and other medical supporters.
Here, I want to translate my article, No. 918, in English as below.
In Japan, Now,
Japanese governments declare Emergency declaration (without Lock Down of Town)
in 7 prefectures.
And they demand us not to go out from our house and not to meet each other.
Here, Now, let's rethink reasons
why we cannot go out from our house
or why we cannot meet each other.
New coronavirus infects from a human to another human,
and fatal risk is high if once it caught us.
we, human, have no effective medicine and vaccine.
In such case,
the most effective tactics for our survivals is
to avoid infecting another person with this new coronavirus
by isolating a person with new coronavirus from healthy people.
This isolation means
not only isolating a person with new coronavirus from healthy people
but also isolating healthy people form a person with new coronavirus.
Dr. Hitoshi Oshitani fights to this new coronavirus
by chasing links of infections and clusters,
by knowing who has new coronavirus in these clusters,
by cutting such links
to make effect of these clusters vanish, I think.
We must find new infected person with new coronavirus
and we must isolate this person who is also being a source of infections to other people
from crowd of healthy people as soon as possible.
a case that one patient gives his new coronavirus to many persons
is a very bad case.
If one person with new coronavirus gives his virus to no one,
the number of patients will be "0", definitely.
But if one person with new coronavirus gives his virus to one other person,
the number of patients will keep (in a at lease case)
and person with new coronavirus will only change.
In this case,
a risk that everyone will become a patient
will be high.
And in a worse case
that one person with new coronavirus gives his virus to two other persons,
the number of patients will become very big like double game.
if we isolate healthy people from a person with new coronavirus appropriately,
next patients will never emerge and its number will be "0".
Then this case can be closed.
To get this good future,
we must find a person with new coronavirus, who is also being a source of virus,
and must chase and find people who are infected by him
and must isolate all people with new coronavirus from healthy person.
Then no next patients will emerge and its number will be "0"
and this case will be closed.
He and medical fighters (headquarters for new coronavirus) want to know
who is a person with new coronavirus
and where he is
by chasing infection links perfectly.
But now in Japan,
we cannot know many patientsf source persons
(that is, we cannot find where, how, when and from who he was infected).
We do not find from who we must hide ourselves.
So, a condition of remove this Emergency declaration has
a condition that we can chase cluster effects again, I think.
Because our present status is
that we cannot find from who we must hide,
headquarters for new coronavirus must advise all ofus
not to meet anyone, I think.
In real, we cannot meet anyone in our lives,
they said to us, "Let's decrease 80% of meeting chances to other people."
Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura simulated our possible futures.
He showed if we will not make an effort to decrease till 20% of meeting chances,
this Emergency declaration will not make any affection,
even if we sacrifice for our money for following this Emergency declaration.
(70% of decrease needs 2 months for our desirable future.)
If we fail to decrease,
our money sacrifice will have no means.
(We will be damaged economically not by new coronavirus itself.)
(Dr. Shigeru Omi advised us to pay care, likely,
100% avoid of 3 dense virus situations in the surrounding air of you (closed room, crowd, short humans' distance)
80% avoid of going out from our houses,
40% and more avoid in working cases.)
And one emergence of a patient presses new more loads to medical staffs and medical equipment.
So, we want to decrease the number of patients itself.
(If overload happens,
usual disease patients can not consult his doctor
or cannot get their needing medical cares.
A quality of medical care will be down than usual.
So, we want to avoid such future.)
Due to special nature of this virus
that not everyone with this virus shows his sick symptoms,
we cannot find exactly who is infected by this virus.
So, every meeting chance must be avoided,
because we cannot find who we must avoid.
This is a status of Japan, I think.
This patients number decrease tactics is
we erase our all meeting chances from everyone
If we cannot decrease the number of the next patients
(We want the number to be "0"),
unfortune cases like other countries will happen also in Japan
and a possible future that we have bigger number of patients than we can treat
...is what I want to say.
Please, one more time
rethink reasons for our not seeing other people,
and act calmly and appropriately.
< Additional Writings >2020.04.08(JST)
Even if the number of persons with virus keeps flat
I want to write one more about this additional writing's title's case.
If one person with virus gives one other person,
and if the number of patients (people with virus) keeps constant
(that is, a case that the number of recovered patients and the number of new patients is equal.),
what happens is
that faces of patients change one after another.
In that case,
all people without antibody of this virus
will be infected by this virus.
all weaker people to this virus,
such as people with a constitution who easily become severe condition
or who are easily to be dead,
may be infected.
if the number of the next patient is not "0",
we must face to severe future.
< Additional Writings 2 >2020.04.08(JST)
What I saw in news of clusters
I saw some cases that clusters occurred in news.
In fields with 3 dense virus situations in the surrounding air of you (closed room, crowd, short humans' distance),
it must be seen that the number of the next patients could be big over "2" very easily.
(Example lasting numbers are 3, 4, 5, 6...)
we must avoid these 3 dense virus situations in the surrounding air of you at least
for our survivals.
< Additional Writings 3 >2020.04.08(JST)
Please let's put high risk people back
I saw in one of news
that high risk people of becoming severe status by this virus
still have been exposed to outside circumstances much,
because pregnant mothers are in working age, for example.
I want to tell men to act appropriately
with good understandings for women's living conditions.
(I think that men and women both
need to inform their own hearts and living conditions each other,
because we do not know what we do not know
and we easily isolate without communications.
I want to encourage good and deep communication between men and women.)
< Additional Writings 4 >2020.04.08(JST)
If we can separate green zone from red zone,
we can freely do economic activity. But...
If we can find a person with virus
and can isolate him from us,
then if we can make green zone with no virus clearly,
no prohibited actions are there.
If we can keep such condition,
we did our economic activity freely.
Because we could chase links of patients,
tactics of governments and headquarters for this virus
was that we pass through this virus with keeping least sacrifices of our money
till specific medicine will come, I think.
Because patients with unknown links to their giver increased,
we cannot recognize our living field as green zone now.
we must be careful not to become the next patient
who are given this virus from an unknown person or known person
and at the same time,
we must be careful not to give our virusto other people,
if we have already had this virus.
For such aim,
we all must decrease our meeting chances to other people evenly,
In a real story,
virus never care human side story
even if we die without chances of earning money,
or even if we are bore without going out our house.
(If we do behind actions for this fatal virus,
our survivals will become severe one.
This is a story of real.
This bad story is not good for us, human.
which cannot live along with real world goings
This extinction often happens in a world of living things.)
we are given this virus from anyone
and do not give this virus to anyone.
Then we decrease the number of the next patients.
We must act as such, I think.
< Correction > 2020.04.14(JST)
3 dense virus situations in the surrounding air of you
My representations of "3 Mitsu (in Japanese)"
as 3 dense cases (closed room, crowd, short humans' distance)
is not clear representations.
I corrected it to
3 dense virus situations in the surrounding air of you
(closed room, crowd, short humans' distance).